These new developments have significant implications to shaping the future of Syria, whether it be favorable to US interests or not, and to the power balance of the Middle East. In no particular order, these points of interests are as follows: the failed coup d'etat and the consequent centralization of power, deepening of partnership with the Russian Federation, and the recent fracturing and uncertainty of the EU following the "Brexit".
The Coup D'etat
Following the failed coup d'etat, President Erdogan has continued to crack down on various elements of the military, judiciary, and other state elements(of particular note, the removal of state educators is especially interesting, as it may be due to his fears of a deep infiltration of Gulenist supporters in state positions). The impact of this is that all the branches of the government has been consolidated under the power of the President. This was accomplished by the three months of "state of emergency" powers bestowed by the constitution, allowing him to circumvent both domestic and international law.
Historically, the Turkish military were institutionally separated from the civilian government to pose as the final check and balance to the direction of the country. However, the indiscriminate purging of both low and high level members of the military will have a strong chilling effect in discouraging any future attempts for another coup d'etat. With no formal domestic institutions hindering Erdogan, he will have less difficulty in executing plans to their security interests in the Middle East.
Russian Relations
Modern Turkey-Russia relations were built on mutual economic and security interests and both benefited from the partnership. The 2015 incident where Turkey shot down a Russian plane severely soured this relation and the economic and any potential military cooperation between the two were immediately cut. In June, 2016, President Erdogan has personally expressed regret over the incident and have made earnest effort to normalize the relation, which has been met with open reciprocation by Russia. Shortly after, Russia followed with resumption of economic relations and promises of close military cooperation for operations in Syria (presumably for targeting mutual adversaries, namely Kurdish rebels and ISIL).
While Turkey often leverages its western partnership for many of its economic and geo-political interests, the normalization of Turkey-Russian relations allows for recourse for when and if it would face western opposition. That is not to say that their partnership with Russia is a de facto replacement over the west, but having multiple avenues for cooperation opens up new possibilities as well as providing leverage when negotiating with the west. The sharing of military intelligence in particular for operations in Syria is noteworthy given their recent military actions against Kurds in Syria.
EU Membership and Syrian Refugees
EU membership has been long sought after by Turkey for the economic agreements and freedom of movement it would be inducted into. While there are a variety of concerns with the EU members regarding the possible economic and political consequences with Turkey's inclusion into the EU, this is something that has been in consideration for some time. To this point, Turkey has held an unfavorable position in this negotiation, but the recent events in Syria has changed the tide in Turkey's favor. The sudden influx of refugees in particular have proven to be an insurmountable challenge without the full cooperation of Turkey, which it promises in return for visa-free travel for Turks in the Schengen zone.
The recent "Brexit" has also stirred and challenged the status-quo of Turkey-EU negotiations. With the proposed exit of the UK from the EU, trust in the stability of the EU has waned. This may have the consequence of lowering the bargaining power of the EU in regards to Turkey and even potentially change Turkey's mind as to whether they want to commit to a full membership status with a potentially failing union.
Conclusion - Turkey and the Immediate Future
In a span of a single year, the ability for Turkey to act in its own interest without the cooperation of the west and its overall bargaining power has increased substantially. Just in 2016, Erdogan has managed to solidify his domestic power base and consolidate state entities under his control. Internationally, they have formed strong partnership with Russia who is likely to show greater tolerance for Turkey's pursuit of security interests in the region. The Syrian refugee crisis has managed to shift the balance of power in favor of Turkey, giving them significant leverage in negotiations, which they will likely utilize in the near future (as they've already done in regards to freedom of movement for Turks in EU).
With that in mind, Turkey is in a highly favorable position where the west cannot reasonably limit or pose credible threat to prevent Turkey from acting unilaterally for its own benefit. While Turkey may exercise caution in exercising their expanded boundaries and powers, it is likely that they will continue to do so until the political climate undergoes another shift against their favor.
As to what Turkey will do in the future is not certain as Erdogan has shown himself to be a dual figure of both practicality and passion, making him a difficult figure to predict. That being said, based on the current trajectory, the following can be expected to occur in the immediate future:
- Conduct limited military operations against Kurdish rebels which may expand to Iraq.
- Cooperate with Russia with the goal of returning stability to Syria under their terms.
- Seek limited integration into EU while not fully committing to full membership.
Additional Thoughts
The economic and political situation in the Middle East appear ripe for Turkey to make a move to establish itself as a dominant figure in a new Middle East power order. This is especially true when considering the recent drop of petroleum prices that severely damaged the economies of other major players. With the economic and political climate in their favor, Turkey has an opportunity to steer the direction of the Middle East's future. This is not something that they will simply squander.
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